Bear Mountain Capital Inc.

Budget Deals and Debt Limits

| April 18, 2011

A budget deal and an increase in the debt limit. Both need to happen. The question is what is the time-frame and is it credible? The longer the country waits for a solution, the more volatile US treasuries and the equity markets become. The one thing the markets do not like more then anything else, is uncertainty. (Click here to read Bloomberg.com article)

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Deficit to GDP

| April 12, 2011

In emerging markets, a deficit greater then 4% of GDP is high. While a developed economy has more consistent revenues and a more diversified economy, a deficit to GDP ratio of 10% is detrimental to growth.  MAJOR deficit reduction initiatives must be enacted to meet this short-fall.  If last week’s budget battle was an indication, its going to be rough-riding for all. (Click here to read Bloomberg.com article)

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The Federal Reserve Discount Window

| April 6, 2011

The level of global financial market integration is truly underestimated by most investors: “Overseas banks accounted for about 70 percent of discount window loans when borrowing reached its peak of $113.7 billion in October 2008, according to the Fed’s data. The discount window, established in 1914, is known as the lender of last resort.” (Click here to read Bloomberg.com article)

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Unemployment drops to 8.8%

| April 1, 2011

The unemployment rate dropping to 8.8% is a milestone.  Combine this data with the continued strength in manufacturing and you have an optimistic outlook for continued growth in employment.  Despite the ugly real estate outlook, the economy continues to expand and employment is growing.  Biggest hurdle left is the deficit and what moves can be made to lower it, without slowing economic progress. (Click here to read article)

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US Economy Back to Precrisis Levels – Perspective

| March 23, 2011

This is good perspective on how the US recovery is shaping up, relative to our European counterparts. The focus is on an expansive fiscal and monetary policy approach verses austerity measures or less expansive fiscal and monetary policy approach. (Click here to read Fidelity article)

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Unemployment Rate Drops

| February 4, 2011

The drop in the unemployment, despite the slow growth in farm payrolls, is a good sign for the economy. I think it is likely we’ll see this number drop to close to 8% by year-end, but given the structural unemployment issues, extended unemployment benefits and older generations not retiring, these issues create a lot of upward pressure on that number and will take time to drop below 8%. (Click here…

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ISM Index of Manufacturing in US Rises

| February 1, 2011

Despite unrest in Egypt the markets are looking towards further economic expansion.  Hurdles remain, but confidence continues to improve. (Click here to read Bloomberg.com article)

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The Fed

| December 1, 2010

The Fed’s role in the recent financial crisis is unprecedented. While there is no doubt they staved off a true collapse of our financial system, there is also no doubt that they wield significant power over our capital markets that truly tests the principals of “free markets”. A few quotes from the article below are worth noting: ““The Federal Reserve followed sound risk-management practices in administering all of these programs,…

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