The beginning of a stock market selloff feels terrible—there’s a palpable tenseness and nervousness in the air. Intuitively, we know that selloffs happen, but our emotions and fear don’t care about market history, context, or what the data tells us. What if this time is different? What if we’re on the verge of something catastrophic? After all, every market downturn, whether a correction, pullback, or full-blown bear market, had to start somewhere.
A few weeks ago, I had the chance to hike Half Dome in Yosemite National Park for the second time in my life. The first time was over 23 years ago with two close friends. The three of us reunited, added one more long-time friend, and ventured out again to conquer the 8,800 granite peak, climbing 4,800 feet of elevation to reach the top. It was a one day, 16 mile round trip trek, that left us utterly exhausted and simultaneously exhilarated by day’s end.
Our national media cycle is a non-stop barrage of mostly gloomy headlines focused on topics that generate clicks and views. Unfortunately, we are biologically wired to focus and react more to negative news than to positive news.
Recently, two regional banks, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank have been caught up, to some degree, in the making of their own demise. Both were seized by regulators last quarter, as their depositors realized the banks were struggling to keep up with withdrawals and were being forced to sell securities at a loss, to keep up.
LOOKING BACK It’s difficult to know what the future will hold without understanding the past. 2022 was a difficult year in the market.
