Bear Mountain Capital Inc.

Leading Economic Indicators Point to Slower Growth – Not Double Dip (Yet)

| August 25, 2010


I’m posting a link to a timely piece put out by Fidelity Management & Research Co.  It assesses the various contributions to Real GDP Growth by determining if growth was driven by personal consumption, business investment, net exports, etc. and what the trend has been over previous quarters.

It also spends some time looking at what economists call the LEI’s (Leading Economic Indicators).  These indicators are often used to asses whether the economy is expanding or contracting.  Put another way,is the US economy heading toward another recession or not.  The term “double dip” refers to a second recession quickly following the recovery from a previous recession.

As published in the piece, the LEI’s point to slow down, but show that they are well above the levels that would indicate we are entering another recession.  The “Trends and Outlook” section of the piece is informative in how to view and interpret the LEI’s.

Click here to read piece:  Growth Slows, Leading Data Not Showing “Double Dip”